Start 1861: I Just Inherited the Dutch Throne

Whether it is London or Amsterdam, under the current special node, it is not too easy to act too weak.

For London, Disraeli needed to face the competitive public opinion of the old opponent of the former Prime Minister Creston, and the battle between the Tories and Whigs for parliamentary seats soon. Therefore, for this reason, the status of the British Empire , becoming a position where he cannot be attacked.

At the same time, this move by the Netherlands is obviously advancing the sausage-slicing strategy, constantly challenging London's position and influence in Gibraltar and the UK in the world, and even hollowing out the glorious intimidation power of the British empire. Therefore, as many British politicians have expressed, if Huntington expresses his opposition to the legalization of British rule in Gibraltar, it is not impossible for the UK to respond with strong military measures.

Just like the message conveyed by Dutch Prime Minister Tolbeck when he released the news, the Dutch military believes that it is not the right time for Speaker Huntington to visit Spain and express his thoughts at this time. Obviously, the Dutch military department has received strong dissatisfaction from the British Empire's military, and there may even be a lot of threats.

But it is obviously impossible for Tolbeck to prevent Speaker Huntington's visit, at least on the surface. Based on the principle of separation of powers, it is impossible for Prime Minister Tolbeck's government to directly intervene in the travel of people who released agents in the Netherlands. What's more, the Tolbeck government is unlikely to be too weak at this time. This will be a disaster for the successors within his own faction after Prime Minister Tolbeck, who has a very high support rate, leaves office. This will Give Christianity an opportunity.

That is to say, we can change the relationship between the Netherlands and the United Kingdom from the good and bad times during the period of Viscount Tolbeck and Palmerston to the current situation where the two countries have become the three-part division of "investment, alliance and competition" evaluated by William IV. Since British Prime Minister Disraeli took office last year and changed it to a three-point rule of "confrontation, alliance, and competition", we can see that the relationship between Britain and the Netherlands is developing in an increasingly unfriendly direction, and we can clearly feel that Disraeli's The British government under Sraeli seemed to be aware of the need to maintain an appropriate level of competition with the Netherlands. It may be beneficial to his governance and the operation of global governance and order of the British Empire.

But often on the contrary, it seems that his choice should be wrong at present. Holland's influence seems to have expanded dramatically in more than a year of his term. However, the United Kingdom has shrunk, falling and rising, which is really unbelievable.

In short, no matter what, Prime Minister Tolbeck cannot show any signs of weakness at this moment. It seems unrealistic to ask Tolbeck to stop Speaker Huntington's trip. Not possible either.

Therefore, among the three parties of Britain, the Netherlands and Spain, the only one with relative flexibility is the cabinet government led by Prime Minister Ramon Narvaez of the Kingdom of Spain.

Within the tripartite framework of Britain, the Netherlands, and Spain, Huntington’s value to Spain is more symbolic. Whether Huntington visits or not, he may substantively change Spain’s takeover of Gibraltar, especially under British pressure. It seems that Spain has gained substantial The benefits are not many, and it will even increase the pressure on Britain. Therefore, the value of Huntington's visit has been relatively reduced.

How the Spanish Prime Minister Ramon Narvaez's government responds to Huntington's possible visit must not only consider the benefits, but also the costs. Madrid is not too pessimistic about the potential response to the UK and makes the most negative assessment. If Huntington reaches Spain, he can immediately improve Spain's access to Gibraltar, or improve its international status with Spain. The answer is probably no.

However, the troupe may be under further pressure from London, and even British warships are regularly cruising the waters around Spain. Now the UK seems to be slowly tightening the scope of cruising in the English Channel and the western Mediterranean. If because The scope of this matter has expanded, which is not a good thing for Spain.

What will happen next or even more severe military pressure? Is Madrid prepared for this?

What's more, Huntington may be asked to step down soon. Whether his influence will be reduced as a result, and whether Spain will gain continued support for the Dutch policy as a result, is also unknown.

As the currently weak party among the British, Dutch and Spanish parties, it is not easy to take the initiative in the three-party game. Only by taking advantage of the current dilemma of the other British and Dutch parties not to retreat is Spain's opportunity, and now it is .

What's more, if what Julian, the Speaker of the Spanish House of Representatives, said is true, that is, Spain maintains rational goodwill towards the United Kingdom, then it should get along with Spain when the three parties of Britain, Spain and the Netherlands are about to enter a serious crisis and even trigger a war. The goodwill upheld by the parties to reduce risks between the three parties. When London and Amsterdam did not lower their tough stance, Madrid took the initiative to ask Huntington, Speaker of the Dutch House of Representatives, to change or postpone his schedule. This is undoubtedly relatively maneuverable. xing and flexibility practices.

Finally, Crim, director and chief researcher of the Australia Institute, who published this suggestion in the "Australian Times" asked rhetorically: Will the Spanish authorities in Madrid do this?

After the Spanish newspaper Vanguard reported that Huntington, the Speaker of the Dutch House of Representatives, planned to visit Spain and express his support for Spain's sovereignty over Gibraltar, Prime Minister of the Netherlands Tolbeck, Chief of Staff of the Spanish Ministry of Defense Mark Ruede, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands Dutch political representatives such as Minister Hesbert von expressed their opposition. Huntington was asked without comment. Public opinion from all sides focused on whether Huntington would return and what kind of military prevention and control measures London would take.

In this regard, when everyone was paying attention, Huntington finally stood up and said on the morning of February 18, “I think what Prime Minister Tolbeck and Chief of General Staff General Mark Rudd meant was that the Dutch military was worried that the Dutch warship escorting me would intercepted or even sunk, or similar other unfriendly actions by the British Navy."

From this aspect, it was revealed that the Dutch military believed that the British Navy might shoot down the warship escorting Huntington, thus triggering a major military crisis.

At the same time, this also shows that the Netherlands has prepared a complete plan to deal with the threat from the British Navy that may attack high-ranking Dutch officials during their visits.

The British Financial Times reported on February 17 that multiple British sources reported that the British Empire had issued an unusually severe warning to the Netherlands and that the British Empire would not rule out the possibility of military response. For a while, Europe seemed that The sky seemed to be filled with dark clouds.

If the above information shows that the three parties of Britain, the Netherlands and Spain are facing a thunderstorm, then the statement issued by Russell, the Foreign Secretary of the British Empire, directly proves the seriousness of the situation.

At a press conference on the morning of February 18, 1869, a reporter asked about the possible military response of the British Empire as the accuracy of the Spanish Herald's report had improved with the information released by Huntington.

Foreign Secretary Russell said that the UK has repeatedly stated to the Dutch government its serious concerns and strict position against Huntington's risky behavior on the Gibraltar issue. We are preparing for it. If the Kingdom of the Netherlands insists on going its own way, the UK will take visible and powerful measures to defend the interests of the British Empire around the world and protect the UK's prestige and vital interests. The Netherlands should be responsible for all consequences. .

When asked, "Is this true that the British Empire issued a more severe warning to Dutch officials mentioned in the report?" Foreign Secretary Russell said, "Your understanding is very correct," which sent a major signal that the British Empire had indeed issued a stricter warning to Dutch officials. A stern warning than ever before.

But will the Netherlands go back and surrender? The answer is also difficult to come by.

The four Anglo-Dutch naval battles in the 16th and 17th centuries confirmed that Britain replaced the Netherlands as the North Atlantic hegemon, and gained the capital to consolidate the foundation for confrontation with Spain. After that, Britain slowly eroded Spain's position in the Atlantic to the south, and finally The Anglo-Spanish Naval Battle established Britain's maritime supremacy.

To understand what measures the UK will take after Huntington visits Spain and issues a more severe warning than before, we need to know more about the past PK between the two countries.

When the strength was not enough, the Dutch North American New York was driven away by the British; when the strength was not enough, it was replaced by the British in colonial South Africa; when the strength was not enough, the British forcibly occupied Malacca (later Singapore), but the Dutch protest was ineffective; when the strength was not enough, the British coerced The Netherlands could not establish a colony in the Malay Peninsula or sign any treaty with the local rulers. Otherwise, Britain would occupy Sumatra, the westernmost island of the Dutch East Indies. Due to lack of strength, under the threat of Britain, Belgium was finally separated from the Netherlands with the help of Britain. The United Kingdom established itself as a pro-British country, and its king was Leopold I, Queen Victoria's uncle who had just ascended to the throne of England.

The latter practice of Britain using its strength to "bully" the Netherlands only happened 30 years ago, and many Dutch people still clearly remember how Britain drove its fleet to conduct artillery exercises in the sea off the Netherlands, causing a crisis that eventually ended in the Netherlands. The compromise ended in failure.

In the past, the Netherlands had no strength, especially militarily, it was difficult to match the British navy's technology. Therefore, the Netherlands could only suffer a dumb loss and swallow a bitter pill. Therefore, it avoided conflicts and frictions and once occupied the territory of William I, William II and William III (now Greece). King) The main line of Dutch foreign policy among the three kings of the Nassau-Orange family. If Huntington visits Spain this time despite the firm dissatisfaction of Britain, he will be knowing that the British Empire is ready for a military conflict with the Netherlands. It is surprising that the conflict is still going ahead, and at least for now it seems that it is not giving up and unwilling to compromise.