Start 1861: I Just Inherited the Dutch Throne

Kingdom of Prussia, Berlin.

Bismarck frowned in thought. In front of him was a large pile of newspapers, some from Spain, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, and some from Prussia. As a diplomat, he already knew French and Spanish before he was ambassador to France. etc., not to mention Russian, English and Dutch, so he knows the European languages ​​well, so looking at the collection of reports from major newspapers in various countries in front of him is one of the greatest pleasures for him. one.

"While the outside world was speculating on whether Huntington, the Speaker of the Dutch House of Representatives, would visit Spain, the telegram dialogue between the British and Dutch prime ministers went on as scheduled. Disraeli and Tolbeck's communication, which lasted ten telegrams, focused on international and two-country issues. Although the two sides are still stuck in their respective statements, it is conceivable that Disraeli and Tolbeck should have in-depth communication on Huntington's visit to Spain. If Huntington insists on visiting Spain, the trip may end in a low-key and low-key manner."

Bismarck was very interested in the Gibraltar dispute between Britain, the Netherlands, and Spain. What he was interested in was not Gibraltar itself, but the incident.

He couldn't help but murmured: "The Netherlands actually made such a backhand, leaving the UK passive, and the Spanish government cannot refuse. If it refuses, it is almost foreseeable that the ruling Prime Minister Ramon Narvaez will collapse. In this way First of all, it seems that the Speaker of the House of Representatives of the Netherlands is deliberately provoking public opinion to gain political popularity by taking advantage of the fact that the Dutch are as anti-British as the Spanish. In fact, there may be other motives behind the scenes. No matter how you look at it, it seems that he is cooperating with the Netherlands. foreign policy”

Bismarck suddenly thought this way. From his feeling, it seemed that the Netherlands was really driving the situation to develop like this.

"If that's the case, it would make sense. In fact, when the Spanish Herald spread the news about Huntington's plan to visit Spain, the Dutch administrative system and the military gave a very clever attitude. Especially Prime Minister Tolbeck's words "unsuitable and unpleasant".

Tolbeck's trusted Foreign Minister Hesbert von strongly objected, and Tolbeck himself inadvertently mentioned the role of the military. Whether it was a leak or intentional is no longer important.

The meaning of the Dutch military is very clear: If Speaker of the House of Representatives Huntington insists on going to Spain, then the military will have no choice but to assist in maintaining security in accordance with the constitution and in accordance with legal duties. "

Bismarck looked at the reports in these newspapers and became more and more convinced that everything was developed under the cooperation of various departments in the Netherlands. Perhaps the Netherlands had the overall plan for the incident. Thinking of this, he was slightly startled. If so If so, what exactly does the Netherlands want to do? Picture what?

"From the early internal pull in the Netherlands, we can basically reveal the truest position of the military represented by the Tolbeck cabinet government and Chief of Staff Mark Rudd: First, we deeply understand that Gibraltar will be the biggest conflict between Britain and Spain. point, and it is clear where the British may have drawn the red line, so Tolbeck and others raised doubts and objections to Huntington.

Second, it was fully aware that Huntington's visit to Spain and his pro-Spanish remarks on the Gibraltar issue would have an impact on the Dutch government's policy stance towards Britain, so the Tolbeck cabinet government repeatedly reiterated that the Dutch government did not support Huntington's remarks on Gibraltar. Third, the Tolbeck government fully respects Huntington’s right to serve as Speaker of the House of Representatives under the Dutch constitutional structure. Although it will not obstruct it, it will not endorse him.”

According to the setting just now, Bismarck came to the conclusion.

"In the above context, Tolbeck should have expressed his position and concerns to Prime Minister Disraeli in London through this communication. Disraeli's expression of British dissatisfaction seemed to have foreshadowed two points. First, London Strong countermeasures must be taken against Huntington's visit to Spain. Secondly, if Huntington insists on visiting Spain, he will bear the greatest responsibility. Obviously, compared with the peaceful dialogue between the British and Dutch Prime Ministers in the past when Viscount Palmerston was Prime Minister, under Disrae During the Leeds period, Britain and the Netherlands had abandoned gentlemanly exchanges and turned into direct and rough collisions."

Bismarck thought: "According to Huntington, London's questions and warnings about provoking the Gibraltar issue were more directly directed at the Tolbeck government. However, in this telegram communication, London's tone of criticism of the Tolbeck government's words and deeds about Gibraltar was not so tough, and the response was The Tolbeck government was aware and understanding of Huntington's situation during his visit to Spain."

As one of the anti-British political leaders in the Netherlands who was about to expire and sought to continue to hold the position, Huntington's visit to Spain was almost imminent and had to be carried out. But what is intriguing is that when his visit to Spain was revealed, Huntington responded to the media by stating that he "supports Spain, but does not support Spain's provocation against the United Kingdom in order to seize Gibraltar." This position is actually consistent with the Dutch government. Therefore, Huntington himself, who has an extremely flamboyant political personality, believes that his words and deeds will be restrained during his visit to Spain.

After the telegram communication between Tolbeck and Disraeli, Bismarck guessed that three situations may occur in Huntington's visit to Spain: The first is to "make a splash" and start a visit. The venue may be limited to Madrid, the capital of Spain, and the stay may even be longer. It is very short; secondly, the closed-door visit will not be announced to the public, and will inevitably be supported in front of important members of the Spanish government. It supports Spain but does not support Spain’s position of provoking Britain; thirdly, the Tolbeck government will once again reiterate the existing Dutch policy, that is, support Spain was vocal, but did not oppose British control.

Bismarck thought about this and smiled to himself: "In this case, how London responds and counterattacks is worthy of attention. When Huntington is in Spain, will London's warships stay close to Spain's Atlantic and Mediterranean coastlines? Or? Formal sanctions against Huntington himself, his family and members of the team visiting Spain? The answer will be revealed soon."

"Whether the Netherlands is setting up a trap or not, this is an opportunity for Prussia. If Prussia can take advantage of the chaos to get more benefits, it might as well do something extraordinary."

Bismarck paused, "The French Empire under Napoleon III is still bleeding for the Far East. The more it bleeds, the less burden it will have on Prussia's future attack on France. Therefore, the Netherlands is currently pushing for the National Tribunal in The Hague to organize sanctions against the French Empire." The practice can be continued, but it cannot be too heavy. If it is too heavy, it will make Napoleon III feel pain and finally choose to compromise. Then France will stop the practice in the Far East. Even with the shrewdness of the French, it will be possible in the short term. To repair relations with other countries, when Prussia takes action, it will not only face a powerful France, but also face that neighboring countries that have eased relations with France may support France and oppose Prussia."

Bismarck took a deep breath, "So, Prussia's joining in sanctioning the French Empire will be counterproductive. Instead, it will become an excuse for the French Olivier government to put down its dignity and kneel down to beg for mercy. The United Kingdom and the Austro-Hungarian Empire also thought so. After all, Everyone wants to weaken their competitors.”

"Therefore, it is not appropriate for the Netherlands to expand its sanctions against France. It needs to be boiled in warm water over slow fire."

Bismarck's thoughts were certain, but they had a major influence on the future situation in Europe.

What many people in Paris absolutely don’t know is that it turns out that high-level governments in Berlin, London, and Vienna did not sanction them. They thought it was because they disagreed with the Dutch’s anti-French elements. They never expected that boiling a frog in warm water is the best solution. Important reasons. If he knew it, he would never be as calm as he is now.

Brown, chief researcher at the Amsterdam Peace Institute and director of the British project, wrote an article in Belgium's influential European magazine "Global Diplomacy" on February 18, pointing out that British Prime Minister Disraeli did not want to get involved in a conflict and distract his The attention may affect his situation in the domestic political struggle with the Whig leader Creston, his old rival. Winning the Tory and Whig parliamentary elections in the near future is his priority now. Task.

He believes that if Huntington visits Spain and makes anti-British remarks about Gibraltar, Britain should take military action, but it is very unlikely that London will use this opportunity to attack Madrid or Amsterdam, at least until the results of the mid-term parliamentary elections come out before the end of this year. They will put stability first.

Luxembourg's "Europe Times" quoted people familiar with the communication arrangements of Tolbeck and Disraeli as saying that Tolbeck's government believed that contact between the prime ministers was the best way to ease tensions between the two countries on the issue. Tolbeck also hoped to discuss other international issues with Disraeli, as well as the issue of British-Dutch cooperation in maintaining safe navigation in the Malacca-Strait between Malay Island and the Dutch East Indies when France launched a war in the Far East. At the same time, the Netherlands also had expectations that Britain would support France in punishing France for launching a war against the Kingdom of Siam.

However, the outside world is not optimistic that this communication can bring about substantial improvements in British-Dutch relations. However, the contact between the British and Dutch Prime Ministers at this time is expected to reduce the risk of an unmanageable crisis.

Tim, director of the Dutch governance project at the Rotterdam National Peace Foundation, a Dutch think tank, hopes that both sides can establish mechanisms to reduce the risk of accidents. He said: "Dutch-British relations are in such a bad state, and mutual distrust has reached an all-time high. , I don’t think people realize how dangerous this moment is.”

However, Professor Misted, who is currently a lecturer at the Royal Netherlands Institute for Strategic and International Studies and an expert on the British Empire project, believes that the two sides are not on the brink of danger, but the risk of a major crisis is higher than zero, so Telegraphic communication between Prime Minister Tolbeck and Prime Minister Disraeli was important to avoid unnecessary conflict.